Australia's biggest float in three decades never made it to market. Firmus pulled its A$7 billion IPO on Friday after a week of AI jitters. Yet the ASX 200 still rose 0.4% to 8,716.6 for a second straight up-week, and the S&P 500 gained 1.2% as money moved out of chips and into almost everything else.
Last week's watch-list, scored
Last Monday I set five calls. Here's how they played out.
| Watch item (5 Oct) | What happened | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 — two up-weeks in a row? | Closed Friday at 8,716.6, up 0.4% for the week. That puts it back to roughly break-even for 2026. | Yes. |
| US 10-year — stays above 5.2%; does the AI rally keep narrowing? | Monday's close of 5.31% was the highest since 2002, and it touched 5.36% on Wednesday. Friday ended at 5.24%. But the rally broadened: the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 1.6% and 9 of 11 sectors gained, while the chip index fell 4.3%. | Yes on yields. No on narrowing — it rotated instead. |
| Brent — holds above US$100? | Settled Friday at US$104.72, up 2.4% for the week, after a 4.1% jump on Thursday on reports of possible US strikes on Iran. | Yes. |
| Aussie dollar — breaks its four-week losing streak? | Finished near 69.8 US cents, up about 0.7% — its first weekly gain in five. | Yes. |
| Carried forward — Air Force CCA decision; January 2027 rare-earth deadline | No CCA selection was announced; the Air Force still says it will pick by the end of 2026. Northrop's YFQ-48A made its first flight on 3 October. No change was reported to the 1 January 2027 DFARS magnet rules. | Pending (CCA). Live (rare earths). |
The scoreboard
| Market | Friday 9 Oct close | Week |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 8,716.6 | +0.4% (second straight weekly gain) |
| S&P 500 | 7,811.5 | +1.2% |
| Nasdaq | 27,366.2 | +0.6% |
| Dow Jones | 51,655.0 | +0.9% |
| Nikkei 225 | ~69,031 | +~1.1% |
| Hang Seng | ~24,211 | +~1.0% |
| FTSE 100 | ~10,552 | +0.9% |
| AUD/USD | ~69.8 US cents | +~0.7% — first weekly gain in five |
| Gold | ~US$4,195/oz | up — +0.4% spot, +1.4% futures |
| Brent crude | US$104.72/bbl | +2.4% |
| Iron ore (61% Fe) | US$89.20/t | down — ~3% |
| Bitcoin | ~US$82,300 | −~2.5% |
What moved
1. The Firmus float falls over
Firmus set its price at A$11 a share, valuing the AI data-centre company at about A$43.7 billion. It wanted to raise about A$7 billion. By Thursday, reports said the price could fall to A$8.25. On Friday 9 October, Firmus pulled the float.
Investors baulked at a valuation close to Woolworths' for a company with start-up revenue. The prospectus was thin, and AI-bubble worries were running high. Part-owner Maas Group fell 22% on Thursday alone and 32% for the week, to $4.63.
What it means: appetite for AI infrastructure is real, but not at any price.
2. AI wobbles, and the market spreads out
On Thursday 8 October, the Financial Times reported OpenAI's annualised revenue near US$50 billion. That's about US$20 billion below the figure investors had been using. Chip stocks took the hit: the chip index fell 3.4% that day and 4.3% for the week. Arm lost 13% for the week and Intel 12%.
Yet the broader market rose. In the US, utilities (+4.0%), consumer staples and energy (both +3.6%) led. The equal-weight S&P 500 ended a run of seven straight down weeks. In Australia, property trusts, utilities and healthcare each gained about 3.5–3.7%, while tech fell 2%.
What it means: money rotated out of the AI trade rather than leaving the market.
3. The Fed keeps the door open
Minutes from the September meeting came out on Wednesday 7 October. They showed the Fed lifted rates to 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023. Most officials thought another quarter-point rise before the end of 2026 "would likely be appropriate". US consumer sentiment slid to 46.3, its lowest since May.
What it means: this week's US inflation print (Wednesday) decides whether an October hike comes back into play.
4. China returns, and iron ore doesn't celebrate
Chinese markets reopened after Golden Week on Thursday 8 October. The most-traded Dalian iron ore contract fell 3.1% that day, on weak steel demand and high port stocks. The seaborne 61% Fe price slipped to US$89.20 a tonne by Friday, down from about US$92 a week earlier.
What it means: the miners won't get a China lift until steel demand turns.
5. Aussie households turn gloomier
Westpac's consumer sentiment index fell 4.7% to 80.4 on Tuesday 6 October. More than 80% of people expect mortgage rates to rise over the next year. Australia's 10-year yield stayed near its highest level since 2011, ending the week around 5.35%.
On the ASX, Domino's jumped 12% for the week, while Megaport fell 16% and Sunrise Energy Metals 19%. Northern Star was quiet: there was no new proposal from Gold Fields after its rejected A$38.7 billion approach in late September.
What it means: the RBA's hikes are hurting confidence. Thursday's jobs data will show whether they're hurting employment too.
This week: what to watch (12–16 Oct)
| Day | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 12 Oct | US Columbus Day — bond market closed, stocks open; Japan's Sports Day — Tokyo closed | Thin trade to start the week |
| Tue 13 Oct | JPMorgan, Citi, Goldman Sachs results (US morning; Tue night–Wed AEDT) | Earnings season starts: loan demand, dealmaking, bad debts |
| Tue 13 Oct | RBA minutes (expected); Telstra AGM | How close the Board came to a bigger move |
| Wed 14 Oct | Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock | Consumer credit health and investor flows |
| Wed 14 Oct | CBA and Origin AGMs | Australia's biggest bank faces shareholders after four hikes |
| Wed 14 Oct | US inflation, September (8:30am US time; ~11:30pm AEDT) | Decides whether the Fed hikes again in late October |
| Thu 15 Oct | Australian Labour Force, September | A key input for the RBA's 3 November meeting |
| Thu 15 Oct | Macquarie passes on the RBA hike | The last major lender to move |
Coming soon: Big Tech earnings from about 28 October; Australian September-quarter inflation in late October; RBA decision on Melbourne Cup Day, 3 November; Westpac (2 Nov), NAB (5 Nov), Macquarie (6 Nov) and ANZ (9 Nov) results.
Next week's scorecard
Next Monday, I'll check these calls against what actually happened:
- Do the US banks beat — and does guidance hold up as well as the headline?
- Does US inflation come in hot enough to put an October Fed hike back on the table?
- Does Australian unemployment tick up, taking pressure off the RBA?
- Does the US 10-year stay above 5%?
- Carried forward: any Air Force CCA decision, and any shift in the January 2027 rare-earth deadline.
Market Monday is commentary and observation, not investment or trading advice. Figures are as reported at Friday 9 October close; some sources differ slightly on exact levels. Hero image is a code-generated graphic.
Sources & further reading
- Company IR: JPMorganChase; Citi; Wells Fargo; Bank of America; Morgan Stanley; BlackRock
- BLS release schedule; ABS release calendar; RBA calendar
- AGMs: Telstra; CBA; Origin
- ABC — banks pass on the hike
- Market Index — Friday evening wrap (9 Oct)
- Small Caps — weekly wrap (9 Oct)
- AP — how major US stock indexes fared, 9 Oct
- The Glass Desk — weekly market review (9 Oct)
- Yahoo Finance — 9 Oct markets live
- Armstrong Economics — market talk, 9 Oct
- Trading Economics — Nikkei 225; Hang Seng; FTSE 100; Australian 10-year
- FinanceFeeds — Brent week ahead (US$104.72 settle)
- MMi daily iron ore index (9 Oct)
- Mesteel — iron ore futures fall post-holiday
- ABC — how the Firmus float fell over
- ABC — 6 Oct live blog (Westpac sentiment)
- ROIC — Fed minutes
- MINING.COM — Northern Star rejects Gold Fields bid; Kalkine — takeover talk lingers
- Air & Space Forces — CCA coverage; FlightGlobal — CCA selection by end of 2026; Rare Earth Exchanges — 2027 DFARS magnet rule
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